短时交通流预测方法研究进展

实时准确高效的交通流预测是实现交通流诱导和交通控制的关键技术之一，近年来它在智能运输领域受到广泛关注。本文首先介绍了短时交通流的属性和预测要求，接着将现有预测方法分成4类：基于线性理论的方法、基于非线性理论的方法、基于混合理论的方法和基于交通流理论的方法，并且总结评述了现有各种预测模型的优缺点，之后探讨了当今短时交通流预测领域的研究热点，最后指出了其未来研究方向．

Research Progress of Short Term Traffic Flow Prediction Methods

Real-time, accurate and efficiency short term traffic flow prediction is one of the key technologies to realize traffic flow guidance and traffic control, which has being widely concerned in the domain of ITS during recent years. Firstly, the attributes and requirements of traffic flow were introduced in this paper. Then, the prediction methods were fallen into 4 categories： linear, nonlinear, hybrid, and traffic flow based. The present forecasting models＇ advantages and disadvantages were summarized and commented at the same time. Subsequently, the hot topics in the field of traffic flow prediction were also discussed. Finally, the future research direction is pointed out.