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本文提出并采用一种离线预测与在线预测相结合的、基于历史数据并根据在线数据修正的、能减少服务器运算复杂性的较高性能的计算机模型和公交车到站时间预测算法.并以公交车实时GPS运行信息为运算依据,应用Java EE、JSP开发、MySQL数据库和Android手机操作系统开发等技术,在服务器端以公交车有限状态机模型来掌握公交车的实时信息,开发了一个集中式、企业级、手机平台上的、基于请求与响应的综合系统,能够向乘客手机客户端发送目标线路上车辆到站情况的预测信息,提高出行效率.最后基于大连市旅顺口区18路公交车运行数据进行了系统测试,结果表明,以该算法为基础的系统具有良好的性能.

Bus Arrival Time Forecasting and Real-time Information Publication Technology

This paper proposes an effective bus arrival time forecasting algorithm based on historical records and modified by real time status. The algorithm takes into account of the offline and online prediction, which is able to reduce the complexity of calculation on server. Based on GPS real time information of bus status, the real time bus status is obtained on the Finite state machine model on the server with the application of the Java EE, JSP, MySQL Database. A centralized, enterprise level, mobile device oriented and request response based comprehensive system Android operating system technics is established to release the bus arrival time prediction and send the predicted information of bus status to user’s mobile device At the last section, the system is tested at No. 18 Bus line of Lushun District, Dalian, China, which demonstrates that the algorithm performs well on the system.