| 大型活动交通分布预测方法比较及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵会珍,李中山,孟丽丽.大型活动交通分布预测方法比较及应用[J].交通科技与经济,2014,16(6):53-55. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵会珍 李中山 孟丽丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河北联合大学机械工程学院,河北唐山,063000
2. 唐山市交通勘察设计院有限公司,河北唐山,063000 |
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| 基金项目： | 2013年唐山市应用基础研究计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 大型活动的举办势必会对城市交通产生影响,为更好地制定交通管理措施,需要对大型活动进行交通需求预测。四阶段法是交通需求预测的常用方法,交通分布预测是四阶段法的第二阶段。通过对交通分布预测常用三种方法的比较分析,说明三种方法的优缺点,并通过三种方法在唐山世园会举办期间交通分布预测中的应用比较,得到交通需求总量。
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| 关 键 词： | 大型活动 交通分布预测 重力模型法 恩格尔系数法 |
Comparison and Applications of Traffic Distribution Forecast Methods |
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| ZHAO Hui-zhen,LI Zhong-shan,MENG Li-li.Comparison and Applications of Traffic Distribution Forecast Methods[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2014,16(6):53-55. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Hui-zhen LI Zhong-shan MENG Li-li |
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| Institution: | ZHAO Hui-zhen, LI Zhong-shan, MENG Li-li (1. Mechanical Engineering College of Hebei United University, Tangshan, Hebei, 063000, China; 2. Tangshan Traffic Survey＆ Design Institute Co. , Ltd, Tangshan 063000, Hebei,China) |
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| Abstract: | Organizing large-scale events will inevitably affect urban transport, in order to make traffic management measures, travel demand forecasting is needed, four-stage method is a method of transportation demand forecasting, traffic distribution forecast is the second phase of a four-stage method. Through a comparative analysis of three commonly used traffic distribution prediction method, we can see the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods; and get a reasonable amount of traffic demand during Tangshan Horticultural. |
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| Keywords: | large-scale events traffic distribution forecast Gravity Model Engel coefficient method |
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