高速铁路对道路客运的影响研究

为定量分析高速铁路对道路客运的影响程度,探索促进道路客运业健康发展的途径。以浙江省道路客运业为例,利用问卷调查及座谈方式,获得道路客运企业的经营状况变化。运用SWOT模型探索新形势下的道路客运行业合理的应对策略,并对未来多种运输方式的运输格局进行预测。结果表明：与高速铁路运行方向一致的跨省市的中长途客运班车所受的影响最大；省内客运总量基本保持不变,仍有较大的市场份额可供客运企业开发。客运行业应从提升自身竞争力、减少开支和班线调整3方面入手逐步把中长途运输上的运能转移到农村客运、旅游运输等中短途市场上。

Research on Influence of High-Speed Railway on Road Passenger Transportation

To quantitatively analyze the influence degree and seek appropriate measures for road passenger transportation,the questionnaires survey and business discussion are conducted to access the operating conditions of road passenger transportation in Zhejiang Province. Using SWOT analysis,the rational strategies of road passenger transportation in the new situation are explored and future transport patterns are predicted. The results show that the inter-provincial and inter-city long-distance passenger bus in consistent with the direction of high-speed rail line suffers the greatest impact,that the passenger volume remains basically unchanged,and that there are enough market share for passenger business to develop. From the three aspects of enhancing their competitiveness,reducing costs and carrying out lines adjustments,the passenger transport industry should gradually transfer resources in the long-distance transportation to the short-haul market such as the rural passenger transportation and tourism transportation.