新冠肺炎疫情对民航的影响分析与政策建议

为给政府制定应对策略提供决策支持，基于航班运行数据分析了新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对民航造成的影响。通过分析2003年“非典”和新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对民航影响的差异，基于情景假设对2020年民航运输发展形势进行了预测分析，并提出有关政策建议。研究结果表明：新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对民航市场需求造成了严重的冲击，2020年民航运输形势不容乐观，预计年旅客运输量同比基本持平或下降10.9%。政府部门需在做好疫情防控期间运输保障工作的同时，加快出台积极的产业政策以支撑民航发展。

Influence of COVID-19 on Civil Aviation and Policy Recommendations

In order to support government developing response strategies, the influence of Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19) on civil aviation was studied based on flights operation data. By analyzing the different influence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and COVID-19 on civil aviation transportation, the development situation of civil aviation transportation in 2020 was predicted and analyzed under 2 scenarios, and related policies were suggested. The results show that the outbreak of COVID-19 has caused severe market demand shock to civil aviation; The situation of civil aviation transportation in 2020 is not optimistic; It is estimated that the annual passenger transportation volume in 2020 will be basically the same or decrease by 10.9% to the previous year. It is concluded that government should well-organize the emergency transportation during the epidemic prevention and control period, and timely deploy proactive industry policies to support civil aviation development.