基于新型冠状病毒传播机理的交通出行易感度研究

为科学判断各交通方式出行过程中人群感染病毒的风险概率进而有效控制病毒传播，借助空气传染病模型，根据已发布的新型冠状病毒传播机理，构建了交通出行的病毒易感度评估模型，模型包含对病毒传播有重要影响的通风、载客密度、暴露时间等主要参数。选用各种运输方式中有代表性的运载工具进行不同假设情景下的易感度评估，结果表明，在各种有效防控措施均得以采用的情景下，乘坐交通工具的易感度相比高危情景降低97%以上，相比基准情景降低93%以上。研究可为交通领域的科学防疫、精准施策提供依据。

Travel-Infected Susceptibility Based on Transmission Mechanism of COVID-19

In order to scientifically judge the risk probability of virus infection among people who have traveled in various transportation modes and effectively control the spread of virus, an airborne disease model was used to establish a risk assessment model for the infected susceptibility during travel based on the published Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19) transmission mechanism. The main parameters that have important effect on the spread of the disease were included, such as ventilation, carrying density and exposure time. The representative means of various transportation modes were selected to evaluate the susceptibility under different scenarios. The results showed that, under the situation that all kinds of effective control and prevention measures were adopted, the travel-infected susceptibility was reduced by more than 97% compared with the high-risk situation, and 93% compared with the baseline situation. It could provide a basis for scientific epidemic prevention and precision strategy in transportation industry.