The impact of urban form on automobile travel: disentangling causation from correlation |
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Authors: | Colin Vance Ralf Hedel |
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Institution: | 1.Rheinisch-Westf?lisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI Essen),Essen,Germany;2.Institute for Transport Research,German Aerospace Center (DLR e.V.),Berlin,Germany |
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Abstract: | A longstanding question within the field of transportation demand management is the strength of the relationship between urban
form and mobility behavior. Although several studies have identified a strong correlation between these variables, there is
as yet scant evidence to support policy interventions that target land use as a means of influencing travel. To the contrary,
some of the more recent research has cast skepticism on the proposition that the relationship is causative, recognizing the
possibility that households endogenously self-select themselves into communities that support their preferences for particular
transportation modes. Focusing on individual automobile travel, the present study seeks to contribute to this line of inquiry
by estimating econometric models on a panel of travel-diary data collected in Germany between 1996 and 2003. Specifically,
we employ the two-part model (2PM)—a procedure involving probit and OLS estimators—to assess the determinants of the discrete
decision to use the car and the continuous decision of distance traveled. Beyond modeling variables that capture the urban
form features that are commonly suggested to influence mobility behavior, including mixed use and public transit, this study
employs instrumental variables to control for potential endogeneity emerging from the simultaneity of residential and mode
choices. Unlike much of the work to date, our results suggest that urban form has a causative impact on car use, a finding
that is robust to alternative econometric specifications.
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Keywords: | Individual travel behavior Instrumental variables Urban form Two-part model |
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