| 轨道不平顺非线性预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 周宇, 许玉德, 李浩然. 轨道不平顺非线性预测模型[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2004, 4(4): 21-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周宇 许玉德 李浩然 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学,道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海,200331;同济大学,道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海,200331;同济大学,道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海,200331 |
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| 基金项目： | 铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2002G041) |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了轨道高低不平顺非线性预测理论, 根据广深线运量和轨、车检测数据, 采用多元回归分析得到广深线轨道高低不平顺非线性预测模型, 将该模型用于预测未来轨道不平顺的发展情况, 并与实际检测值进行对比和误差分析。结果表明, 两者图形趋势较为一致, 说明用该模型预测轨道高低不平顺发展趋势是可行的。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁道工程 轨道高低不平顺 非线性预测模型 不平顺发展率 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-1637(2004)04-0021-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-01-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-01-09 |
Nonlinear track irregularity forecast model |
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| ZHOU Yu, XU Yu-de, LI Hao-ran. Nonlinear track irregularity forecast model[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2004, 4(4): 21-24. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Yu XU Yu-de LI Hao-ran |
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| Affiliation: | Key Laboratory for Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 200331, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on nonlinear forecast theory of track irregularity, a forecast model was developed by multiple factor regression analysis with traffic data and inspection data of track inspection car. Future track irregularity development was forecasted using this model. The values of forecast and inspection were compared, and the error between them was analyzed. It was pointed that the figures of forecast and inspection are similar. The result indicates that it is feasible using the model to forecast longitudinal irregularity. 3 tabs, 6 figs, 7 refs. |
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| Keywords: | railway engineering track longitudinal irregularity nonlinear forecast model of irregularity development rate of irregularity |
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