科技进步对交通运输系统发展的影响

人类是科技的发明者，也被科技发展深刻影响.本文从交通运输角度分析人类社会与科技发展的历史关系，解读科技进步对交通运输业及其发展方式、结构的作用.研究发现：科技正以越来越显著、程度越来越强的方式影响着人类客货运输的效率及服务水平.同时，科技发展的速度越来越快，形成了滚雪球的效果.交通运输业的发展在技术进步的推动下需要更多地关注长期战略与长期规划，以避免短期策略带来的重复投资与可能的浪费.未来大数据、物联网、共享技术等给人类社会带来的不仅是效益与效率的改变，还将涉及大量与传统观念甚至社会伦理不同的变革，这些变革值得从社会治理角度去重视与研究.研究认为：“十四五”至2035年，在全面认识未来变革导致的需求下降等风险基础上，首先，应从政府层面做好顶层设计工作，优化交通运输资源配置；其次，应尽快研究规范科技带动下交通运输新兴产品的管理；第三，借助科技发展的推动，提高既有交通运输基础设施的效能，研究部分基础设施提供延伸服务的方法；最后，研究交通运输行业供需新理念，进一步提升客货运输服务质量. 这些变革对于交通运输专业工作者与决策者都是新的挑战.

Impacts of Science and Technology on Transportation

Human is the creators of science and technology and also deeply affected by them. This paper analyzes the relationship between humans and the development of science and technology from the perspective of transportation. It interprets the actions of science and technology on transportation modes and structure. The study finds that science and technology have played growing impacts with a more obvious and stronger degree on the efficiency and service level. The evolution of science and technology themselves is faster and faster like snowballs. The situation makes it necessary for the transportation industry to pay more attention to long-term strategy and planning so as to avoid possible waste by overlapping investment under short-term tactics. The future applications of technologies as big data, internet of things, and the concept of sharing will not only cause the changes of efficiency, and benefit for human society, but also great transforms inconsistent with traditional views and even social ethics as well, which are worth studying from the perspective of social governance. During the 14th five years and even to 2035, it concludes several countermeasures. First, the top-level design should be done well at the government level based on the comprehensive understanding of future changes. Secondly, it is necessary to start the researches on the regulation for the coming transport products and services promoted by science and technology, which may conflict with current social cognition. Thirdly, strengthening the efficiency of existing transportation infrastructure is important both for operators and customers with the promotion of science and technology development. It finally suggests to study the extension services with improved performance for some transport infrastructures under the possible recession in future demand. An updated concept of supply and demand in the transportation industry seems coming soon toward our society, which means new challenges for transport professionals and decision-makers.