人员密集型地铁车站安全风险评价方法

为准确评价人员密集型地铁车站的安全状况, 通过文献检索、案例收集与问卷调查等方式, 在考虑主、客观危险源的基础上对人员密集型地铁车站进行了安全风险因素识别研究, 建立了四级共包含55个指标的安全评价指标体系, 风险类型包括火灾、踩踏、恐怖袭击、水灾、地震等, 明确了各级指标权重的计算方法、指标分值的获取方法及其安全等级类型和分值范围; 基于可拓理论, 建立了四级风险指标的安全分值计算方法和人员密集型地铁车站的安全风险等级判定准则与评价方法, 通过MATLAB对安全评价方法进行编程, 并对广州地铁3号线体育西路车站的安全状态进行了快速评价。计算结果表明: 体育西路车站安全一级指标与各安全等级的关联度矩阵为(-0.057 6, -0.462 4, -0.588 2, -0.628 1)^T, 二级指标中踩踏事故与各安全等级的关联度矩阵为(-0.354 8, -0.741 5, -0.724 5, -0.690 4, -0.186 5)^T, 根据最大关联度原则, 体育西路车站总体处于安全状态, 但在拥挤与踩踏、人员疏散环境以及管理对策等方面存在安全隐患, 而车站良好的运营安全风险管控措施降低了不安全因素的影响。可见, 采用评价方法有利于准确了解地铁车站的安全状况, 及时发现安全隐患, 制定应对措施, 保障地铁车站安全运营。

Evaluation method of security risk on crowded metro station

In order to accurately evaluate the security situation of crowded metro station, the security risk factors of crowded metro station were identified and analyzed on the basis of considering the subjective and objective hazard sources through literature search, case collection and questionnaire. A 4-level security evaluation system with 55 indicators was established. The risk types included fire, stampede, terrorist attack, flood, earthquake and so on. The calculating method of indicator weights at all levels, the acquisition method of indicators scores, the types of security grade and the indicators score ranges were clarified. Based on the extension theory, the security score calculation method of four-level risk indicators and the security risk grade judging criteria and evaluation method of crowded metro station were established. The security evaluation method was programmed and calculated by using MATLAB. The Tiyuxilu Station of Guangzhou Metro Line 3 was evaluated rapidly. Calculation result shows that the correlation matrix between the first-level security indicator and each security level of Tiyuxilu Station is(-0.057 6, -0.462 4, -0.588 2, -0.628 1)T, and the correlation matrix between the stampede accident of second-level indicator and each security level is(-0.354 8, -0.741 5, -0.724 5, -0.690 4, -186 5)T. According to the principle of maximum correlation degree, Tiyuxilu Station is generally in a safe state, but there are potential security hazards in congestion/stampede accident, evacuation environment, and management countermeasures, so the good operational security risk control measures of the station can reduce the impact of unsafe factors. The evaluation method is conducive to accurately understand the security situation of metro station, timely discover the potential security hazards, and formulate the countermeasures to ensure the safe operation of metro station.