船舶电子装备研制质量风险建模与评价方法

船舶电子装备的发展水平是船舶工业竞争力的重要衡量标准，由于船舶电子装备研制过程繁琐、探索性极强且成本高，导致研制过程中的风险防控难度非常高，为减少损失，对船舶电子装备项目研制中的质量风险进行建模与评价是必不可少的。本文针对这些问题，首先对船舶电子装备项目研制过程中的风险进行了研究，其次给出了船舶电子装备研制项目质量风险建模方法，然后根据风险控制目标要素的特点抽取决策变量建模，并根据模型选择合适的风险评价方法进行评价。最后以某所的综合船桥系统的研制为例，对上述所提出的方法进行验证，结果表明，在该系统研制过程中该方法风险识别的覆盖率为100%，风险评价的拟合度均超过80%。

Research on Quality Risk Modeling and Evaluation of Marine Electronic Equipment Development

The development level of marine electronic equipment is an essential standard of the competitiveness of the shipbuilding industry. Due to the cumbersome, exploratory, and high cost of the marine electronic equipment development process, the risk prevention and control during the development process is challenging. In order to reduce losses, predicting quality risks in the development of marine electronic equipment projects is essential. To address these problems, the quality risks in the development process of marine electronic equipment projects are studied firstly. Second, the quality risk modeling method of marine electronic equipment development projects is presented. Third, according to the characteristics of the risk control target elements, the decision variables are extracted for modeling. Fourth, risk evaluation methods are selected for evaluation according to the model. Finally, a novel Integrated Bridge System of some research institute as an example is selected to verify the methods. The verification results show that the coverage rate of the risks identified by the risk identification method during the development of the Integrated Bridge System reaches 100%, and the Goodness-of-fit of the risk assessment is more than 80%.