A planning tool for evaluating vehicles miles travelled and traffic safety forecasts of growth management scenarios: A case study of Baton Rouge and New Orleans |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Urban and Regional Planning, Center for Urban and Environmental Solutions, Florida Atlantic University, Building 44, Room 284, 777 Glades Road, Boca Raton, FL 33431, United States;2. University of New Orleans Transportation Institute, 368 Milneburg Hall, University of New Orleans, 2000 Lakeshore Drive, New Orleans, LA 70148, United States;1. Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Automatic Control, Electronics and Computer Science, Silesian University of Technology in Gliwice, Poland;2. Department of Statistics, Econometrics and Mathematics, Faculty of Management, University of Economics in Katowice, Katowice, Poland;1. Louvain School of Management, Place de Doyens 1 bte L2.01.01, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium;2. CORE & Louvain School of Management, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium;1. Federal University of Technology – Parana, Av. Dos Pioneiros, 3131, Londrina, PR 86036-370, Brazil;2. State University of Londrina, Celso Garcia Cid, Pr 445, km 380, Londrina, PR 86051-990, Brazil;3. State University of Maringa, Av. Colombo, 5790 – Vila Esperança, Maringá, PR 87020-900, Brazil;4. Section of Pulmonology, Department of Medicine, Health Science Centre, State University of Londrina, Parana, Brazil;5. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil;6. Global Centre for Clean Air Research (GCARE), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guilford GU2 7XH, United Kingdom;7. Visiting Research at Lund University, Lund, Sweden;1. Department of Urban Planning and Design Xi’an Jiaotong Liverpool University Higher Education District, 111 Ren’ai Road Suzhou, 215123 PR China;2. Department of City and Regional Planning 406A Wurster Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States;1. Civil Engineering Department of Civil & Mechanical Engineering Purdue University Fort Wayne, 2101 E Coliseum Blvd, Fort Wayne, IN, 46805-1499, USA;2. University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Avenue Department 3295, Laramie, WY, 82071-3295, USA;3. Wyoming Technology Transfer Center, 1000 E. University Avenue, Department 3295, Laramie, WY, 82071, USA |
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| Abstract: | This study describes an adaptable planning tool that examines potential change in vehicle miles travelled (VMT) growth and corresponding traffic safety outcomes in two urbanized areas, Baton Rouge and New Orleans, based on built environment, economic and demographic variables. This model is employed to demonstrate one aspect of the potential benefits of growth management policy implementation aimed at curbing VMT growth, and to establish targets with which to measure the effectiveness of those policies through a forecasting approach. The primary objective of this research is to demonstrate the need to break with current trends in order to achieve future goals, and to identify specific policy targets for fuel prices, population density, and transit service within the two study regions. Models indicate based on medium growth scenarios, Baton Rouge will experience a 9 percent increase in VMTs and New Orleans will experience 10 percent growth. This translates to corresponding increases in crashes, injuries and fatalities. The paper provides forecasts for planners and engineers to consider an alternative future, based on desired goals to reduce VMTs and therefore improve safety outcomes. A constrained-forecast model shows a cap on VMTs and crash rates is achievable through policy that increases fuel prices, population density and annual transit passenger miles per capita at reasonable levels through a growth management approach. |
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| Keywords: | Vehicle miles travelled Traffic safety Growth management Transportation planning |
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