Probabilistic assessment of aviation CO2 emission targets |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Transport Engineering Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Brazil;2. Department of Tourism and Heritage, Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (UNIRIO), Brazil;1. École supérieure d’aménagement du territoire et de développement régional (ÉSAD), FAS-1622, Université Laval, Québec, Canada;2. AFEKA, Tel-Aviv Academic College of Engineering, Afeka Center for Infrastructure, Transportation and Logistics (ACITRAL), 38 Mivtza Kadesh St, 699812 Tel Aviv, Israel;1. Federal University of Technology – Parana, Av. Dos Pioneiros, 3131, Londrina, PR 86036-370, Brazil;2. State University of Londrina, Celso Garcia Cid, Pr 445, km 380, Londrina, PR 86051-990, Brazil;3. State University of Maringa, Av. Colombo, 5790 – Vila Esperança, Maringá, PR 87020-900, Brazil;4. Section of Pulmonology, Department of Medicine, Health Science Centre, State University of Londrina, Parana, Brazil;5. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil;6. Global Centre for Clean Air Research (GCARE), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guilford GU2 7XH, United Kingdom;7. Visiting Research at Lund University, Lund, Sweden;1. Department of Environmental Science and Management, Humboldt State University. 1 Harpst St, Arcata, CA 95521, United States;2. Schatz Energy Research Center, United States;3. Sustainable Transportation Initiative, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States;4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, United States;1. Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics, and Environmental Sciences, University of Texas Health Science Center School of Public Health, 1200 Pressler Street, Houston, TX 77030, United States;2. Southwest Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, 1200 Pressler Street, Houston, TX 77030, United States;3. Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 110 Inner Campus Drive, Austin, TX 78705, United States |
| |
| Abstract: | Passenger demand for air transportation is expected to continue growing into the future. The increase in operations will undoubtedly lead to an escalation in harmful carbon dioxide emissions, an adverse effect that governing bodies have been striving to mitigate. The International Air Transport Association has set aggressive environmental targets for the global aviation industry. This paper investigates the achievability of those targets in the US using a top-down partial equilibrium model of the aviation system complemented with a previously developed fleet turnover procedure. Three ‘enablers’ are considered: aircraft technologies, operational improvements and sustainable biofuels. To account for sources of uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to run a multitude of scenarios. It was found that the likelihood of meeting all targets is extremely low (0.3%) for the expected demand growth rates in the US. Results show that biofuels have the most impact on system CO2 emissions, responsible for an average 64% of the total savings by 2050 (with aircraft technologies and operational improvements responsible for 31% and 5%, respectively). However, this impact is associated with high uncertainty and very dependent on both biofuel type and availability. |
| |
| Keywords: | Aviation system Aviation fuel consumption Aviation carbon dioxide emissions Aircraft technologies Operational improvements Aviation biofuels |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
