California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard: Modeling financial least-cost pathways to compliance in Northwest California |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Environmental Science and Management, Humboldt State University. 1 Harpst St, Arcata, CA 95521, United States;2. Schatz Energy Research Center, United States;3. Sustainable Transportation Initiative, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States;4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, United States;1. School of Architecture, Building, and Civil Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, United Kingdom;2. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom;1. School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China;2. California PATH, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94804, USA;1. École supérieure d’aménagement du territoire et de développement régional (ÉSAD), FAS-1622, Université Laval, Québec, Canada;2. AFEKA, Tel-Aviv Academic College of Engineering, Afeka Center for Infrastructure, Transportation and Logistics (ACITRAL), 38 Mivtza Kadesh St, 699812 Tel Aviv, Israel;1. Federal University of Technology – Parana, Av. Dos Pioneiros, 3131, Londrina, PR 86036-370, Brazil;2. State University of Londrina, Celso Garcia Cid, Pr 445, km 380, Londrina, PR 86051-990, Brazil;3. State University of Maringa, Av. Colombo, 5790 – Vila Esperança, Maringá, PR 87020-900, Brazil;4. Section of Pulmonology, Department of Medicine, Health Science Centre, State University of Londrina, Parana, Brazil;5. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil;6. Global Centre for Clean Air Research (GCARE), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guilford GU2 7XH, United Kingdom;7. Visiting Research at Lund University, Lund, Sweden;1. School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China;2. MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China |
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| Abstract: | The transition to low-carbon transportation fuels plays a key role in ongoing efforts to combat climate change. This analysis seeks to optimize potential alternative fuel portfolios that would lead to a 10% reduction in fuel carbon intensity by 2020 as required under California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS).We present a novel, probabilistic modeling approach for evaluating alternative fuel portfolios based on their marginal greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement costs. Applied to a case study region in Northwest California, our model enables us to quantify the financial cost of GHG reduction via each fuel pathway, as well as for a portfolio deployed to meet the LCFS target. It also enables us to explore the sensitivity of the alternative fuel portfolio, evaluating the impact of fluctuating prices, fuel carbon intensities, and technology penetrations on the makeup of the portfolio and on the average cost of GHG abatement.We find that battery electric vehicles play a critical role, as they offer the lowest-financial-cost significant abatement in almost all plausible scenarios. However, electric vehicles alone will not be sufficient to reach the target; low-carbon biofuels can be expected to play a role in the achievement of 2020 Low Carbon Fuel Standard targets. |
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| Keywords: | Low Carbon Fuel Standard Transportation fuel Alternative fuels Electric vehicles Marginal abatement cost MAC curve |
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