先进的出行者信息服务不确定性问题研究综述

为提高先进的出行者信息服务（ATIS）对交通系统效率的改善能力，需深入分析ATIS不确定性问题对主动查询或被动接受ATIS的出行者的影响。回顾了近20年的相关文献，从出行者交通信息需求及影响因素、ATIS对出行者选择行为的影响、交通信息检索行为和出行选择决策模式、ATIS不确定性的作用机理等四方面分析了ATIS不确定性问题的国内外研究现状、存在问题及未来研究方向。指出既有文献缺乏对不确定性ATIS作用机理的深刻阐述，尤其缺少针对采用不同决策方式和具有不同知识水平的出行者的认知差异分析。未来研究只有关注出行者对ATIS不确定性的主观认知和感知价值，洞悉面向ATIS不确定性时各类出行者的适应性决策方法，才能有效改善ATIS的市场占有率。

Review of Uncertainties in Advanced Traveler Information Services

To improve the effectiveness of Advanced Traveler Information Services （ATIS） in enhancing the efficiency of transportation systems, it is necessary to analyze the impacts of uncertainties on the travelers who either proactively use ATIS or passively receive ATIS. This paper makes a thorough review of literatures in the past two decades from four aspects, namely travelers＇ traffic information needs and impacting factors, travelers＇ choice behaviors under ATIS, the information retrieval behaviors and decision making patterns, and the mechanisms of ATIS uncertainties. The paper discusses the state-of-the-art domestic and abroad studies, problems, and future directions on ATIS uncertainties. It is found that there lacks in-depth discussion on the mechanism of ATIS uncertainties, especially on cognitive variation analysis for travelers with different decision-making patterns and knowledge levels. ATIS market share would not be significantly improved in the future unless sufficient attentions can be paid to the perceived uncertainties and the cognitive values of ATIS uncertainties, as well as the adaptive decision making methods for different travelers under various ATIS uncertainties.