超大型城市合流制污水处理系统水量动态变化研究

以上海市竹园片区污水处理系统为例，利用Prophet模型和皮尔逊相关系数法分析竹园片区2019年、2020年污水处理系统关键节点泵站水量的变化情况及互动关系。结果发现：竹园系统服务片区干线末端流量峰值与降雨量峰值存在滞后的相关性，溢流量与降雨量总体存在中等程度的相关性；末端泵站水量对污水处理厂进口水量影响较大，下游支线水量的增加导致污水处理厂进水量增加；选取的4个关键节点泵站水量均存在明显的周期和季节效应，周期效应体现为下半周水量持续上升，周末达到高峰，然后逐步下降，季节效应表现为7月到10月水量处于高位且有明显波动，1月、2月为低位。此次针对超大型城市合流制污水处理系统水量的变化规律进行研究的成果，可为大型排水系统的联控联调研究提供数据支撑。

Study on Dynamic Variation of Water Quantity in Combined Sewage Treatment System of Super-large City

Taking the sewage treatment system of Zhuyuan Area in Shanghai as an example, the Prophet model and Pearson correlation coefficient method are applied to analyze the changes and interactions of the water quantity of key pumping stations of sewage treatment system in 2019 and 2020. The results show that there is a lag correlation between the peak flow of the end of the main pipe and the peak rainfall flow in the service area of Zhuyuan system. There is a moderate correlation between overflow and rainfall. The terminal pumping station has a great influence on the inlet water quantity of the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). The increase of the downstream branch water quantity leads to the increase of the water intake of WWTP. The four selected key node pumping stations have obvious periodic and seasonal effects. The periodic effect is reflected in the continuous rise of water quantity in the second half of the week, the peak at the weekend, and then the gradual decline. The seasonal effect shows that the water level is high and fluctuated obviously from July to October, and low in January and February. The effects studied aiming at the variation rule of water quantity in the combined sewage treatment system of super large city can provide the data support for the study on joint control and combined adjusting of large-scale drainage systems.