| 公共交通系统营运可靠性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵航,宋瑞. 公共交通系统营运可靠性研究[J]. 公路交通科技, 2005, 22(10): 132-135 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵航 宋瑞 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京,100044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70371014) |
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| 摘 要： | 优先发展公共交通是大城市解决交通拥堵,实现城市交通可持续发展的一项重要措施,然而,公交营运水平的低下制约着公交的发展。本文借鉴可靠性理论对公共交通营运可靠性进行定义,并对公交营运时间和乘客服务可靠性分别进行了描述,据此建立起公交系统营运可靠性模型,然后采用随机模拟技术(即Monte Carlo模拟)进行求解,通过算例说明模型的可行性,最后通过分析可靠性模型得出大型活动期间改善公交营运的途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通工程 营运可靠性 MonteCarlo模拟 公共交通 出行时间 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0268(2005)10-0132-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-07-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-07-20 |
Study on Reliability of Transit Operation |
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| ZHAO Hang,SONG Rui. Study on Reliability of Transit Operation[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2005, 22(10): 132-135 |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Hang SONG Rui |
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| Affiliation: | School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China |
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| Abstract: | It is very important measure to develop public transportation for resolving traffic jam and carrying out sustainable urban traffic development,but the development of public transportation is restricted by service level of the transit operation.This paper describes the reliability of transit operation with the reliability theory.And the reliability of travel time and customer services is defined in the paper.According to the definitions,the modal of the reliability of transit operation can be established,and it can be computed by Monte Carlo simulation.The feasibility of the modal was testified by the example.The way of improving service was proposed by analyzing the modal of the reliability for big event. |
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| Keywords: | Traffic engineering Operational reliability Monte Carlo simulation Public transportation Travel time |
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