| 南京市地铁1号线开通初期客流预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 何宁,马晓甦,王国晓.南京市地铁1号线开通初期客流预测[J].城市交通,2009,7(1):36-44. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 何宁 马晓甦 王国晓 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京市交通规划研究所有限责任公司,江苏,南京,210008
2. 香港科技大学,香港,九龙 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了对南京市地铁1号线开通初期进行精准的客流预测，以规划地铁1号线沿线车站1km半径范围内的51个交通小区为研究重点，进行了5类个人出行调查，利用四阶段法建立交通模型进行预测分析。在交通方式预测阶段，利用交通意向调查数据建立了轨道交通转移率模型，得到轨道交通OD预测结果。最后，将预测结果与实际客流进行比较，说明客流预测精度较好，验证了所使用的出行调查和模型方法的合理和有效性。
|
| 关 键 词： | 地铁1号线 客流预测 南京市 交通模型 轨道交通 预测分析 四阶段法 交通方式 |
Nanjing Subway Line 1 Passenger Forecasting for the Opening Period |
| |
| He Ning,Ma Xiaosu,Wang Guoxiao.Nanjing Subway Line 1 Passenger Forecasting for the Opening Period[J].Urban Transport of China,2009,7(1):36-44. |
| |
| Authors: | He Ning Ma Xiaosu Wang Guoxiao |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Nanjing Urban Transportation Planning Research Institute Ltd.;Nanjing 210008;Jiangsu;China;2.Hong Kong University of Science and Technology;Kowloon;Hong Kong;China |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to obtain accurate volumes forecasting for initial operation phase of subway line 1 in Nanjing, this paper, focusing on 51 traffic zones within 2 kilometers around rail stations along the proposed line, and based on a personal travel survey of 5 classifications, establishes a 4-step model to forecast travel demands. During mode-split, a transit transfer sub-model is developed based on SP survey data, through which the transit OD forecast- ing results are obtained. Finally, a comparison between mode... |
| |
| Keywords: | transportation planning rail transit passenger volumes forecasting person trip survey 4-step model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
