城市轨道交通大客流等车时间计算模型

城市轨道交通的运营在早、晚高峰或突发大客流情况下,客流量超过列车最大承载能力,乘客将排队等待后继车辆而延长等车时间。乘客等车时间是评价交通服务水平和优化列车开行方案的关键因素。提出一种基于列车时刻表,利用排队论方法,准确计算严重拥挤情况下乘客等待时间的模型。针对乘客等车时间计算模糊的问题,在考虑乘客实时到达规律、OD(起讫点)分布、发车间隔和列车运能的基础上,创新地提出可用于城市轨道交通网络和双向的大客流和常规客流的等车时间累计计算方法,可为大客流的时刻表优化策略提供理论依据,并通过累计输入-输出算法计算大客流等车时间的实例,分析多参数变化趋势。实证表明,模型可用于城市轨道交通网络和双向的大客流和常规客流的等车时间实时计算。

The Model of Calculating Waiting Time in Urban Rail Transit under Oversaturated Conditions

When peak-hour demand temporally exceeds the maximum loading capacity of a train during Urban Rail Transit( URT) operation,passengers may not be able to board the next arrival train,and they may be forced to wait in queues for the following trains. As a key element of evaluating transportation service-level and optimizing train schedules,this paper establishes a model to calculate accurately passengers' waiting times,based on queuing theory and train timetable. In view of passengers' real-time arriving rates,OD( Original-Destination) distribution,headway and train's capacity,a cumulative inputoutput algorithm is developed to solve empirical cases,and the tendency of multi-parameters is analyzed.In order to optimize timetable under oversaturated conditions theoretically, this paper proposes a cumulative approach for waiting time calculation,which can be applied for URT network or bidirectional oversaturated and normal passengers. The effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm are evaluated with a real-world data set from a bi-directional URT network.