基于三角模糊数的锂电池航空运输火灾事故树分析

通过分析FAA收录的自1991年3月21日~2013年7月23日的锂电池航空运输事故,重点分析起火冒烟事故,编制了锂电池航空运输火灾事故树。通过事故树分析软件对其进行定性分析,并结合三角模糊数的原理,采用专家打分的方法,对事故树进行定量分析,解决了事故树分析方法不能确定事件精确发生概率的问题,求得了事故树各基本事件及顶事件的概率。根据风险分析结果,提出了控制锂电池航空运输火灾事故的一些措施。 

Fire Risk Analysis of Lithium-ion Batteries in Air Transportation Based on Fault Tree Method and Tri-fuzzy Theory

This study analyzes the fire accidents caused by Lithium-ion battery in air transportation from March 21 , 1991 to July 23 ,2013 and draws the fault tree .The fault tree analysis software is used for qualitative analysis .Then combined with tri-fuzzy numerals and expert scoring method ,the quantitative analysis is conducted to analyze the fault tree .This method solves the problem that the fault tree analysis method cannot determine the accurate probability of event occurrence in that it obtains the probability of basic events and the top event .The corresponding measures are put forward to reduce such fire accidents .