公交线路客流 OD 管流类推估算方法的应用

应用管流类推法(fluid analogy method ,FAM )研究公交线路 OD 矩阵的估算,该方法利用管流概念,将公交线路和乘客分别视为管道和流体,利用乘客在各站上下车人数来估算公交线路 OD 矩阵。将该方法应用于北京市分段计价的公交线路中,通过对比估算结果与实际公交 IC 卡的出行 OD分布,结果表明:在早高峰、晚高峰、全日的 OD 估算误差指数在0.75以上,且早高峰、晚高峰、全日估算的公交乘车站距与实际乘车距离的相关系数分别为0.98,0.98,0.99,验证了 FAM 法在公交线路不同时段 OD 估算中的精度与可靠性,与传统的均衡算法等解析模型相比,该方法简单、高效,且能够得到惟一解,在智能公交实时调度中具有较高的实用价值。 

Estimating ODs of Transit Routes with a Fluid Analogy Method

A fluid analogy method （FAM ） is presented in this paper for estimating ODs of transit passenger in Bei-jing .It is based on the concept of pipe flow ,where transit route and passengers are modeled as the pipes and fluid and the OD matrix of a bus route is estimated based on passenger boarding-alighting counts .The accuracy of the OD matrix esti-mated based on the boarding-alighting data is tested against the observed OD matrix obtained from the transit IC card data over the segmented pricing routes in Beijing .It is found out that the estimation errors for the OD matrix at the AM peak , the PM peak and within the whole day are more than 0 .75 .Meanwhile ,the correlation coefficient between the actual dis-tance traveled and estimated at the AM peak hours ,the PM peak hours and within the whole day is 0 .98 ,0 .98 and 0 .99 respectively ,which supports that the proposed FAM method shows a good accuracy and reliability in estimating OD ma -trix of transit route .Compared with traditional equalization algorithms and other analytical models ,the proposed method is simple ,efficient and has a unique solution .Therefore ,it is believed that the proposed FAM method should be useful for public transportation agencies in their scheduling and dispatching routines .