Impact of Sophisticated Stationary Forecast Techniques on the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain |
| |
Authors: | WANG Chuan-xu |
| |
Institution: | School of Economy and Management, Shanghai Maritime Univ. , Shanghai 200135,China |
| |
Abstract: | The bullwhip effect in a multistage supply chain was analyzed using sophisticated stationary forecasts (third order moving average and third order exponential smoothing forecasts). The third order exponential smoothing and third order moving average forecasts sometimes have a variance reducing effect on the supply chain.In a supply chain with positively correlated or independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) demands, the order variance based on simple moving average forecast (or simple exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on second order moving average forecast (or second order exponential smoothing forecast),and the order variance based on second order moving average forecast( or second order exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on third order moving average forecast( or third order exponential smoothing forecast). In addition, for i.i.d demands, third order exponential smoothing forecast leads to a larger variation than third order moving average forecast. |
| |
Keywords: | supply chain management bullwhip effect forecasting third order moving average third orderexponential smoothing |
本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录! |
|