基于轨迹数据的山区危险性弯道路段交通事故风险动态预测

针对山区双车道公路危险性弯道路段交通事故多发的现实问题,提出主动评估短时交通流状态下的交通事故风险,以降低交通事故发生率.采用无人机高空拍摄弯道路段交通流运行状态,利用计算机识别技术提取高精度的车辆轨迹和交通流数据,结合山区双车道公路弯道路段危险驾驶行为特征表征交通冲突,以距离碰撞时间为交通冲突量化指标,提出山区车道公...

Dynamic Prediction of Traffic Accident Risk in Risky Curve Sections Based on Vehicle Trajectory Data

In view of the problem of numerous in two-lane mountain highway. It is proposed to actively assess the risk of traffic accidents in the short-term traffic flow state, to reduce the incidence of traffic accidents. The UAVs were used to collect traffic flow from high altitudes in curve sections, and computer recognition technology was used to extract high-precision space-time traffic trajectories and traffic flow data. This study combined the characteristics of dangerous driving behavior to indicate traffic collision, used the time to collision as a quantitative index, and constructed the threshold classification standard of traffic collision severity of mountain road corner section. Based on this, the statistical (LR model) and nonparametric data mining techniques (RF and SVM model) were used to construct a dynamic prediction model of traffic accident risk in two-lane mountain highway curve sections. The confusion matrix and AUC as evaluation indicators, and model prediction accuracy was compared and analyzed. Finally, the most accurate prediction model was used to analyze the relationship between variables and accident risk. The results reveal that, the dynamic risk prediction model of traffic accident in two-lane mountain highway curve sections based on RF is the most accurate under the background of vehicle trajectory and traffic flow measurement data, and the accuracy rate is 78.9%, the AUC is 0.846 2, which is 21.8% and 15.93% higher than the accuracy of LR model and SVM model respectively. In addition, it is found that the average road headway (A_HD) and truck mixing rate (R_T) are the most important feature variables in the risk dynamic prediction model. And when A_HD is less than 20 s or R_T reaches 0.6, the probability of accident occurrence increases sharply. The research results can be further applied to the design of short-term dynamic early warning system of two-lane mountain highway, and guide the development of security management countermeasures.