出行链视角下城市轨道交通接驳方式联合选择模型

以城市轨道交通出行方式链为例,针对城市轨道交通两端的接驳方式,构建基于交叉巢式Logit(CNL)模型的城市轨道交通出行链联合选择模型。模型从出行全过程角度,将轨道交通两端的接驳方式纳入一个模型里进行联合选择。模型选取出行者社会经济特征,发生端出行特征,到达端出行特征三类特征变量,建立联合概率模型,对特征变量进行标定。模型结论显示:(1)以到达客流为主的城市轨道交通站点对于交通接驳便捷程度的敏感性更高;(2)公交接驳方式转化为小汽车接驳的可能性更高。对于揭示城轨接驳规律,优化轨道接驳系统具有实际意义。

Joint Selection Model of Urban Rail Transit Access Modes Based on Trip Chain

In this paper,the joint selection model of Cross Nested Logit of access modes to Urban Rail Transit( URT) based on trip chain is built,and the selection of both-end access mode to URT is employed in the model in perspective of the whole process of trip. Three characteristic variables of travelers ' socio-economic characteristics, the origin trip characteristics and the destination trip characteristics are included in the model, the joint probability model is established, and the characteristic variables are then calibrated. Theresults show that URT with high proportion of arrival passengers has a higher degree of sensitivity to the convenience of transport connections,and the access mode of the bus is more likely to shift to that of the car. This study reveals the pattern of access modes to URT,and is practical to optimize transport connection system of URT.