Comparative advantage and maritime transport in the Baltic States

Conventional wisdom has it that, because of locational and other advantages, transit trade and transport, especially maritime transport, could be expected to play a major role in the development process of the Baltic States which was expected to follow their renewed independence in 1991. This paper secks to evaluate this proposition. The first section of the paper provides a brief account of the present state of the shipping and port sectors in the three Baltic republics and offers some speculation about likely future developments. The following section considers whether there is any historical basis for the presumption in favour of transit trade. The paper concludes with a somewhat speculative discussion of whether the Baltic States might be expected to possess any long run comparative advantage in maritime transport. It is suggested that in this respect a distinction should be made between ports and shipping and that in a more prosperous future, shipping, in particular, might be expected to decline in importance.