基于Shapley值的工期延误分析

在工程项目合同管理中,做好工期延误的责任归属和量化对于监理工程师公平、公正地处理工期索赔,维护业主和承包人的合法权益具有重要意义。针对多主体和多事件交叉干扰下,工期延误责任归属和量化难以确定的问题,提出基于Shapley值的工期延误分析法,直接将工期延误责任定量化地分摊到相关活动中,然后针对具体活动再确定业主和具体承包人各自应承担的责任。最后,通过一个例子说明整个分析计算过程是建立在一系列公式的基础上,可操作性强,易于计算机的实现。

A Study on Responsibility of Project Delay Based on Shapley Value

Providing a qualitative attitude and a quantitative method for dispute resolution of delay claim pays much impact on maintaining the legal right of both owner and contractor.Considering the difficulty of allotting responsibility of project delay in multi-event interference,a new analytic method based on Shapley value for the problem is presented in this paper.On the basis of the method,project delay responsibility is allotted to each single responsible activity,and further allotted to both owner and contractor in each single responsible activity.Last,an example is proposed to demonstrate application process of the method is based on a set of formulas,which enhance the maneuverability of the method and can be implemented easily by computer.