基于累积前景理论的拥挤阈值计算模型

信息诱导是缓解交通拥挤的有效途径,为了描述道路拥挤程度对出行者路径选择决策的影响机理,基于累积前景理论分析了出行者的出行决策过程,分析了出行者拥挤认知模式以及不同出行方式的拥挤信息需求。解析了拥挤阈值的概念,将行程时间作为累积前景理论决策指标建立了拥挤阈值的计算模型,以1个简单路网进行算例分析,模拟驾驶员的拥挤认知及出行活动决策。算例结果揭示了拥挤阈值对路径选择决策行为的影响,同时验证了拥挤阈值是出行者在决策过程中的决策变化分界点。出行时间在拥挤阈值内出行者不改变出行路径;出行时间超过拥挤阈值,出行者将改变出行路径。 

Calculation Model of Congestion Threshold Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

Releasing travel information to guide travelers'travel choice is an effective way to relieve traffic conges-tion .In order to describe the influence mechanism between road congestion extent and travelers'route choice decisions , the cumulative prospect theory is used to model travelers'decision-making process ,and the travelers'different congestion cognitive model s and congestion information demand are analyzed .The concept of road network congestion threshold is analyzed ,and the calculation model of road network congestion threshold is constructed based on Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) with travel time as decision index .In the numerical example part ,travelers congestion cognition and travel decisions are modeled with a simple road network .The result of numerical example reveals congestion threshold's influ-ence on route choice decisions ,and verifies that the congestion threshold is the cut-off point of decision change in travelers'decision-making process .Travelers will not change route when travel time is within congestion threshold ;when travel time exceeds the congestion threshold ,traveler will choose another route to travel .