基于泊松分布的落石灾害风险评估与决策

参考滑坡、泥石流灾害风险管理，建立落石灾害风险评估与决策过程。以RHRS评价系统为基础，得到危岩崩落及落石抵达威胁区概率；考虑落石灾害造成的人员伤亡、经济损失和环境破坏，提出了相应的概率计算方法，进而得到落石灾害概率，基于泊松分布提出了威胁区内落石灾害年均概率的计算方法。以可接受风险水平和剩余风险水平为主要判据，简要介绍了进行落石灾害风险决策的过程。

Risk Evaluation of Rockfall Hazard and the Decision making Based on Poisson Distribution

In this paper，rockfall hazard risk evaluation and decision-making procedures was established by referring to risk management of landslide and debris flow.Based on RHRS evaluation system，the probability of the dangerous rock collapsing and rockfall reaching threatened area were gainedand，considering personnel casualties，economic losses and environmental damages caused by rockfall hazard，the methods calculating therelated probabilities were put forward，thus the rockfall hazard probability was further obtained.The calculation method for the annual averaged probability of rockfall hazard in threatened area was proposed based on Poisson distribution.Then，taking acceptable risk level and residual risk level as the main criteria，the risk decision-making procedure therefrom was introduced.