非饱和渗流作用下库岸滑坡体稳定性的可靠度分析

在库水位涨落下,对三峡库区邓家屋场库岸滑坡堆积体进行了非饱和渗流分析。在此基础上,考虑了黏聚力和内摩擦角的变异性,采用Monte-Carlo模拟法对库岸滑坡堆积体的稳定性进行了可靠度分析,得出了库水位上升时失效概率减小、下降时失效概率增大的变化规律,总体上,库水位下降对邓家屋场滑坡的稳定性最为不利,需对滑坡进行治理。

Reliability Analysis on Stability of Landslide at Reservoir Bank under the Action of Unsaturated Seepage

With fluctuation of the reservoir water level, unsaturated seepage analysis was conducted in relation to the talus landslide at the reservoir bank in Dengjiawuchang, Three Gorges Reservoir Area, based on which the variability of cohesion and internal friction angle was considered therein to carry out reliability analysis on the stability of this talus landslide by use of Monte-Carlo simulation method. As a result, the change law is concluded that, when the reservoir water level increases, the probability of failure decreases, and when the level decreases, the probability increases; generally, the decrease of reservoir water level is most detrimental to stability of the landslide in Dengjiawuchang, and the related control measures are required.