| 天气季节性影响的机场到达容量概率分布 |
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| 引用本文： | 张静,徐肖豪,王飞.天气季节性影响的机场到达容量概率分布[J].西南交通大学学报,2011,46(1):154-161. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张静 徐肖豪 王飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京航空航天大学民航学院,江苏南京,210016
2. 中国民航大学空中交通管理研究基地,天津,300300 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家863计划资助项目，国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了研究天气季节性变化对机场到达容量分布的影响,统计得到基于历史天气数据的容量概率分布.在1-参数到达容量分布模型的基础上,建立了基于容量概率分布的周期时间序列模型.根据周期时间序列中月的相似容量概率分布特征,用遗传算法得到4个季:(3,4)、(5,6,7,8,9)、(10,11)和(12,1,2),进而求出各季的容量分布和概率.研究结果表明:包含5、6、7、8和9月的层云季节下降容量持续8 h的概率为25.76%,正常容量持续8 h的概率仅为9.64%.根据容量概率分布得到季的天气季节性影响与实际情况相符.
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| 关 键 词： | 空中交通管理 容量分布 容量概率分布 时间序列 遗传算法 |
Seasonal Effects of Weather on Probability Distribution of Airport Arrival Capacity |
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| ZHANG Jing,XU Xiaohao,WANG Fei.Seasonal Effects of Weather on Probability Distribution of Airport Arrival Capacity[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2011,46(1):154-161. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jing XU Xiaohao WANG Fei |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Jing1,XU Xiaohao2,WANG Fei1(1.College of Civil Aviation,Nanajing University of Aeronaustics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China,2.Air Traffic Management Research Base,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to study the effects of weather seasonal changes on airport arrival capacity distribution,the capacity probabilistic distribution of historical weather was obtained through statistical analysis of the original weather data.A periodic time-series model based on the capacity probabilistic distribution was built on the basis of the 1-parameter arrival capacity distribution model.Then,according to the similarity of the monthly capacity probabilistic distribution in the periodic time series,months are c... |
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| Keywords: | air traffic management capacity distribution capacity probabilistic distribution time series genetic algorithm |
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