超定量系列波浪重现期值研究

首先建立波浪超定量概率模型,提出超定量抽样分组原则以保证数据独立性,通过检验可知该原则下波浪超定量系列能较好地拟合GP分布;提出根据年平均出现频次、是否服从Possion分布和拟合GP情况综合分析判断,寻找合理阈值的方法;分别用GP分布和相应的复合极值分布分析超定量系列,并比较传统的P-III分布,分析可知,采用GP分布和P-GP(Poisson-GP)复合分布计算超定量系列所得的重现期值基本一致,且P-III曲线所得结果接近。

PDS methods for determining extreme wave height

The paper sets an exceedance model and proposes the sampling principle for maintaining the independence of the sample. By fitness test, the sample is preferably fitted. Then the threshold is determined by the average number of occurrence every year and goodness of fit for GPD. The result of comparative analysis shows that the results of the GPD model and P-GP model is the same and approaches that of P-III distribution.