Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data

A model is presented that relates the proportion of bicycle journeys to work for English and Welsh electoral wards to relevant socio-economic, transport and physical variables. A number of previous studies have exploited existing disaggregate data sets. This study uses UK 2001 census data, is based on a logistic regression model and provides complementary evidence based on aggregate data for the determinants of cycle choice. It suggests a saturation level for bicycle use of 43%. Smaller proportions cycle in wards with more females and higher car ownership. The physical condition of the highway, rainfall and temperature each have an effect on the proportion that cycles to work, but the most significant physical variable is hilliness. The proportion of bicycle route that is off-road is shown to be significant, although it displays a low elasticity (+0.049) and this contrasts with more significant changes usually forecast by models constructed from stated preference based data. Forecasting shows the trend in car ownership has a significant effect on cycle use and offsets the positive effect of the provision of off-road routes for cycle traffic but only in districts that are moderately hilly or hilly. The provision of infrastructure alone appears insufficient to engender higher levels of cycling.

Matthew PageEmail:

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John Parkin   joined academia after a career in consultancy. He has experience of all stages of the promotion of transport infrastructure, from planning and modelling to design and implementation. His specialises in transport engineering with an emphasis on design innovation, sustainability principles and community benefit. Mark Wardman   has been involved in transport research for over 20 years. His main research interests are in behavioural response models in general and stated preference in particular. Areas of application have included public transport, notably rail, with several novel applications to cycling and environmental issues. Matthew Page   research interests include transport policy and how it has developed, the environmental impacts of transport, the impacts of transport on climate change, and walking and cycling.