| 指数平滑模型在能源消费总量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王梦东,刘敏.指数平滑模型在能源消费总量预测中的应用[J].武汉船舶职业技术学院学报,2007,6(3):61-63. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王梦东 刘敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉理工大学理学院,湖北武汉,430063 |
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| 摘 要： | 指数平滑技术是进行预测和决策的有效方法。本文建立了能源消费总量的三次指数平滑模型。以1989~2004年我国能源消费总量的实际数据为实证,结合这16年间的能源消费总量具有曲线趋势的特点,利用三次指数平滑模型进行预测,并研究了次模型能较好地应用于能源消耗的中短期预测,为我国能源决策提供可靠的依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 指数平滑 能源需求 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-8100（2007）03-0061-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-04-08 |
The Application of the Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method on the Forecast of the Consumption of Energy Sources in China |
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| WANG Meng-dong,LIU Min.The Application of the Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method on the Forecast of the Consumption of Energy Sources in China[J].Journal of Wuhan Institute of Shipbuilding Technology,2007,6(3):61-63. |
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| Authors: | WANG Meng-dong LIU Min |
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| Institution: | School of Sciences, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063,China |
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| Abstract: | The forecasting model of exponential smoothing is a valid method in forecasting and decision-making.Based on the practical data between 1989 and 2004,and according to the characteristic(curve trend) of the fact consumption of energy sources in our country in recent 16 years,the forecasting model of cubic exponential is set up and it is applied to forecast the consumption of energy sources in the whole country.It also shows that the decisionmaking can be well based on the result. |
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| Keywords: | exponential smoothing consumption of energy sources forecast |
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