Towards a dynamic discrete-choice model of household automobile fleet size and composition

The emphasis on energy consumption in studies of traveller behaviour has led to increased interest in the development of policy sensitive models of automobile demand. In recognition of the fuller dimensions of automobile demand, a number of studies have considered choice amongst types of automobiles as well as number of automobiles. With rare exception, existing studies have concentrated on either type choice or number choice. In all instances the approach has been static. This paper develops a series of linked discrete-choice models to explain household automobile holdings (type and number) and adjustments in the holdings over time. The empirical study is part of an initial data effort leading up to the development of a full scale longitudinal panel of Sydney households. A model system based on a retrospective panel of 354 households, interviewed in 1980, is reported herein. The model is dynamic in the sense that it allows for prior decisions, brand loyalty and the costs of transacting.