奥运会开闭幕式抵离方式及影响因素分析

奥运会开闭幕式参与人员在短时间、小范围的高强度客流集散需求，是奥运会交通服务面临的最大挑战，抵离交通方式预测则是运力配备的基础. 根据北京奥运会开闭幕式期间的交通调查数据，得出了北京奥运会开闭幕式观众抵离交通方式情况. 通过对比分析开闭幕式观众抵离交通方式的变化情况，指出了影响奥运会等大型活动观众抵离交通方式的因素. 结合奥运会开闭幕式现场运行的实际，逐个分析交通管理政策、交通方式时效性、交通设施供给、舆论宣传引导和观众来源分布等因素对观众抵离交通方式的影响，可为后续奥运会及其它大型活动的交通管控、交通政策制定和交通组织提供借鉴和参考.

Spectator Arrival and Departure Traffic Mode and Influence Factors in Beijing Olympic Games Opening and Closing Ceremony

In the Olympic Games opening and closing ceremonies, participants’ arrival and departure transportation demand in small area and short period of time with high volume is a great challenge for transportation services. Analyzing the arrival and departure traffic mode is the basis of traffic organiziation. With the survey data collected from the opening and closing ceremonies, this study explores the traffic mode structure of spectators’ arrival and departure. This study compares the different mode structures of opening and closing ceremonies, reveals several factors and analyzes their impacts on arrival and departure traffic mode choice, namely, management policy, traffic mode timeliness, transportation supply, media propagandize, and the origin of spectators. The study provides suggestions for proper traffic control, management policy isssue, and traffic organization of the Olympic Games and other big events.