轨道交通车站大客流事件的形成、传播及对策

为定量分析轨道交通车站大客流事件形成及传播机理并提出应对策略,从大客流事件界定入手,将其发生与否归结为车站容量、输送能力及乘客到达流量之间的数量关系。区分大型活动大客流、事故/故障大客流、高峰小时大客流3类大客流事件,定量分析其形成原理,同时给出其影响的传播机理,在此基础上有针对性地提出应对策略。研究结果表明,当车站乘客到达流量与车站输送能力叠加后的流量超过车站容量并继续增加时,大客流事件将发生,并通过"涟漪反应"将其影响在轨道交通网络中传播。为此,可从事件预防、应急处置和事后评估三个层次,以及控制到达流量、提高服务能力、加强客流组织和关注薄弱环节四个方面来制定大客流事件应对策略。

Mass Passenger Flows at Rail Transit Stations:Formation, Impacts, and Countermeasures

In order to quantitatively analyze the formation and evolution mechanism of mass passenger flows at rail transit stations,this paper first defines the mass passenger flow event and correlates its occurrence with the station capacity,transmission capacity,and passenger arrival volumes.Through classifying mass passenger flow events into three categories： large-scale events induced,accidents induced,and peak hour induced,the paper discusses the formation mechanism,evolutional impacts and corresponding countermeasures.The results indicate that the mass passenger flow event will occur when the passenger arriving flow plus the transmission capacity exceed the station capacity,and its impact will spread over the rail transit network in a chain reaction manner.Finally,the paper points out that the efficient countermeasures can be established at three levels,including preparation,emergency response,and evaluation,and from four aspects consisting of metering arriving flows,building service capacity,strengthening passenger guidance,and emphasizing points of weakness.