Regimes in social–cultural events-driven activity sequences: Modelling approach and empirical application |
| |
Authors: | Theo Arentze Harry Timmermans |
| |
Affiliation: | Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands |
| |
Abstract: | In this study we propose and apply a Bayesian-network model to predict and analyse the factors that influence activity-travel sequences that are triggered by social–cultural events. The study is motivated by the intention to examine the wider context in which activity-travel decisions are made and to model such decisions under longitudinal time horizons. We assume that social events trigger a series of interrelated activities and corresponding trips. Data about events and related activities are collected using a month-diary and involving a large sample of households in the Eindhoven region, The Netherlands. A learning algorithm is applied to derive a Bayesian-network model from the event diary. The results show that indeed many travel choices are influenced by particular events, that these influences vary by socio-demographic variables and that the learned Bayesian-network model is able to represent these interdependencies among all these variables. We demonstrate how the model can be used to predict event-driven activity-travel sequences in a micro-simulation. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录! |
|