| 基于多层递阶模型的澳门道路交通事故分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭英明,史清华. 基于多层递阶模型的澳门道路交通事故分析与预测[J]. 道路交通与安全, 2009, 0(2): 20-24 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭英明 史清华 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广州510640 [2]广东水电二局股份有限公司,广州511340 |
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| 摘 要： | 以澳门特别行政区1999年至2006年道路交通事故统计数据为基础，分析其分布规律。运用综合事故率法将其与内地城市进行比较，结果表明澳门道路交通安全状况明显好于内地城市，对其内在原因进行剖析，并运用多层递阶模型对未来2年澳门道路交通事故数目进行预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通安全 综合事故率 多层递阶模型 预测 |
Analysis and forecast of road traffic accidents in Macao base on multi-level recursive model |
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| Guo Yingming,Shi Qinghua. Analysis and forecast of road traffic accidents in Macao base on multi-level recursive model[J]. Road Traffic & Safety, 2009, 0(2): 20-24 |
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| Authors: | Guo Yingming Shi Qinghua |
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| Affiliation: | Guo Yingming1,Shi Qinghua2(1.South China University of Technology,School of Civil Engineering , Transportation,Guangzhou 510640,2.Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Bureau Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 511340) |
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| Abstract: | Road traffic accidents in Macao are studied based on the statistic data of year 1999-2000. Compared integrated mortality and mortality per 104 vehicles and 105 people with some other cities in China, the road safety condition of Macao is much better, and the reason is also analyzed deeply. The amount of traffic accidents in Macao of future two years is forecasted by the theory of multi-level recursive model lastly. |
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| Keywords: | road traffic safety integrated accident rate multi-level recursive model forecast |
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