|
|||||
|
|
| 基于灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型对到港外贸船舶数量的预测研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 舒晓武,盛群陆,王初生. 基于灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型对到港外贸船舶数量的预测研究[J]. 港工技术, 2010, 47(6): 46-48 |
| 作者姓名： | 舒晓武 盛群陆 王初生 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 天津大学,天津,300072 2. 天津市政工程设计研究院,天津,300051 3. 天津港(集团)有限公司,天津,300461 |
| 基金项目： | 天津市科技支撑计划重点资助项目(09ZCKFSF01900) |
| 摘 要： | 以天津港多年到港外贸船舶数量统计分析为基础,采用灰色理论模型对到港外贸船舶数量进行比较分析和预测,揭示其内在规律。研究表明,灰色系统理论GM(1,1)预测的相对误差不超过6.9%;天津港外贸船舶数量在短期调整后,依然会保持较快增长势头,未来天津港外贸货物吞吐量增长依然可期。 |
| 关 键 词： | 天津港 外贸船舶 灰色理论 GM（1,1）模型 预测 |
Forecast and Study of Number of Foreign Trade Vessels Arriving in Port Based on Gray Theory Model GM(1,1) |
|
| Su Xiaowu,Sheng Qunlu,Wang Chusheng. Forecast and Study of Number of Foreign Trade Vessels Arriving in Port Based on Gray Theory Model GM(1,1)[J]. Port Engineering Technology, 2010, 47(6): 46-48 | |
| Authors: | Su Xiaowu Sheng Qunlu Wang Chusheng |
| Affiliation: | Su Xiaowu1,Sheng Qunlu2,Wang Chusheng3(1.Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China,2.Tianjin Municipal Engineering Design & Research Institute,Tianjin 300051,3.Tianjin Port(Group) Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300461,China) |
| Abstract: | On the basis of the statistic analysis on the number of foreign trade vessels arriving in Tianjin Port for years,gray system theory model is used to compare,analyze and forecast the number of foreign trade vessels arriving in Tianjin Port.Its inherent law is revealed too.The above research result shows that the gray system theory GM(1,1) can effectively predict the number of foreign trade vessels,and the relative error does not exceed 6.9%.It is predicted that the number of foreign trade vessels reaching Ti... |
| Keywords: | Tianjin Port foreign trade vessel gray theory GM(1 1) model forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |