Probabilistic modelling of time-varying still-water load effects in tankers |
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| Institution: | 1. Unit of Marine Technology and Engineering, Technical University of Lisbon, Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal;2. Registro Italiano Navale, Via Corsica, 12, 16128 Genova, Italy;1. Norwegian School of Economics (NHH), Helleveien 30, 5045 Bergen, Norway;2. Kedge Business School, 680 Cours de la Libération, 33405, Talence, France;3. Center for Applied Research (SNF) at the Norwegian School of Economics (NHH), Helleveien 30, 5045 Bergen, Norway;4. LEMNA, University of Nantes, BP 52231 Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes Cedex 3, France;5. INED, Paris, France;1. College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, 201306, China;2. Commercial College, Xi''an International University, Xi''an, 710077, China;3. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Davis, Davis, CA95616, USA;1. University of Enna “Kore”, Cittadella Universitaria, 94100, Enna, Italy;2. University of Firenze, Via di Santa Marta, 3, 50139, Firenze, Italy;1. Maritime College, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan, China;2. School of Mathematics, Computer Science and Engineering, City, University of London, UK |
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| Abstract: | Analysis of recorded still-water load effects in tankers and of the design conditions in the load manual show that these are situations in which the still-water load effects change significantly during voyages, in particular, for double-hull tankers. The still-water load at a random point during a voyage was simulated by assuming a normal distribution of departure and of arrival data as well as a linear variation of intensity between departure and arrival for each pair of sampled values. It was observed that, in most cases the simulated data followed a normal distribution and this has been proposed as a model. The mean and standard derivation of this distribution should be the average of the respective values at departure and arrival. |
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