华北高速公路交通事故的日迹变化与气象要素的关联分析

通过整理华北高速公路3年(2007年3月～2010年2月)逐时的交通事故资料,并与同步气象要素资料进行日迹变化分析,可以看到平均交通事故的日迹变化呈双峰型分布特征。由此,按交通事故双峰型的时间段(5:00～12:00和13:00～次日4:00),分别以年度、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的平均交通事故与同步气象要素的日迹变化进行相关分析,其中平均气温、平均风速和平均相对湿度与交通事故的相关程度都通过了相应的统计学检验(R>Rα=0.05和F>Fα=0.05),而且在夏季5:00～12:00的交通事故高峰过程中,交通事故与风速呈指数相关的系数高达0.992 3,相当于平均风速每减小1m.s-1,交通事故的增加幅度为0.28次。为将自动气象监测的信息更好地服务于高速公路的交通安全,设计出了高速公路交通事故的气象风险等级指标。由此可见,华北高速公路交通事故的日迹变化与气象要素的分析成果,可为高速公路交通安全提供客观的科学依据。

Relative Analysis of Daily Trace Changes and Weather Factors of Traffic Accident on North China Expressway

The average traffic accident showed a double peak shape distribution on daily trace changes by the analysis of the North China Expressway 3 years(2007.3~2010.2) daily traffic information and the synchronous meteorological factor data changes.Thus,the traffic accident in double peak shape distribution of the time period(From 5:00 to 12:00 and from 13:00 to 4:00 on the next day),respectively to year,spring,summer,autumn and winter average traffic accident and the synchronous meteorological factors on the daily trace changes are correlatively analyzed,the average temperature,average wind speed and average relative humidity and traffic accident related degrees are tested by the corresponding statistical test(R>Rα=0.05 和F>Fα=0.05).A period of traffic accident peak from 5:00 hours to 12:00 hours in summer,the coefficient between traffic accident and the average wind speed reaches 0.9923,which means traffic accident increased 0.28 times when average wind speed reduced by 1 m/s.In order to make better use of meteorological information on traffic safety guide,the meteorological risk grades of traffic accident on North China expressway are designed.From the above analysis the analysis result of traffic accidents and meteorological factors on daily track changes on the North China expressway provides objective scientific basis for traffic safety on expressway.