航空公司安全管理绩效动态提升机制

为解决航空公司安全管理决策短期化、滞后化问题,有效提升其安全管理水平,在民航安全管理理论系统分析的基础上,深入挖掘安全管理绩效要素及其影响路径,构建了航空公司安全管理绩效系统动力学模型。通过专家访谈法确定了各要素指标间的影响关系及其权重,并运用VENSIM软件对模型进行了仿真,结果表明:当航空公司安全管理绩效达到某种程度后,其提升速率呈减缓趋势,需及时调整安全投入策略;此时安全政策和目标、安全监督检查、安全保障资源和安全沟通可作为未来提升安全管理绩效的最佳干预策略组合,为航空公司的安全管理决策提供科学依据。

On the Dynamic Improvement Mechanism of Safety Management Performance in Airlines

To cope with the problem of short-term and lagged decision-making in safety management in airlines and to effectively improve its safety management level,the factors of safety management performance and their influence path were deeply explored based on systematic analysis of civil aviation safety management theory,and the dynamic model of the safety management performance system of airlines was constructed in this paper.The influence relationship and weight of these factors were determined by using expert interview,and the dynamic model was simulated with VENSIM software.The research showed that when the safety management performance of an airline reaches a certain level,its promotion rate showed a slowing trend,and the safety investment strategy needed to be adjusted in time.Moreover,the safety policies and objectives,safety supervision and inspection,safety guaranteeing resources and safety communication can be the optimal combination of intervention strategies to improve safety management performance in the future,which will provide a scientific basis for the safety management decision in airlines.