可超车条件下公交车站点延误估算模型研究

通过分解公交车在站点的等待过程,给出了公交车站点延误的分类和定义.运用排队论中的M/M/s模型,结合随机变量函数和幂级数等相关知识,基于平均排队时间、排队时间标准差和延误产生概率,采用理论推导的方法建立了公交车站点延误估算模型.该模型以公交车到达率、站点通行能力、泊位数和信号参数为解释变量.通过停靠站实地调查对模型进行了验证,表明所建模型可用于公交车站点延误的预测.

Modelling Bus Delay at Bus Stop Under Bus Overtaking Maneuvers Permitted

In order to model bus delay at bus stop under bus overtaking maneuvers are permitted,the type and definition of bus delay at bus stop are proposed by dividing the waiting process of a bus at bus stop.A model in queueing theory,along with some theorems for random variables and some formulas in power series,are applied when modelling bus delay.The models for bus delay at bus stop are proposed based on mean waiting time,variation of waiting time and probabilities of delay occurrences.The explanatory variables in the proposed models include bus arrival rate,capacity of bus stop,berth number and signal parameters.Field survey is conducted in order to validate the proposed models and it is indicated that the proposed models can be used to predict bus delay at bus stop.