| 基于路段交通量的趋势增长--概率分配路网交通量预测方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 朱从坤,冯焕焕.基于路段交通量的趋势增长--概率分配路网交通量预测方法[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(10):84-87. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 朱从坤 冯焕焕 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 苏州科技大学土木工程系,江苏,苏州,215011 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 交通部西部交通建设科技资助项目(200131822336) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 结合中国西部地区路网的现状,以路网中各路段的历史交通量调查数据和区域经济资料为依据,利用多元回归模型对路网的正常交通量进行预测;以现状路网正常交通量为基础,利用概率分配法对新建或改建路网的转移交通量和诱增交通量进行预测,形成基于路网路段交通量调查资料的趋势增长———概率分配路网交通量预测方法。该方法继承了个别推算法的优点又摈弃了总量控制法的缺点,可操作性强,适用于西部地区的路网。
|
| 关 键 词： | 正常交通量 转移交通量 诱增交通量 概率分配 路网交通量 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0268(2005)10-0084-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-07-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年7月9日 |
Forecast Road Network Traffic Using Probit Assignment Method Based on the Traffic Section Growth |
| |
| ZHU Cong-kun,FENG Huan-huan.Forecast Road Network Traffic Using Probit Assignment Method Based on the Traffic Section Growth[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2005,22(10):84-87. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHU Cong-kun FENG Huan-huan |
| |
| Institution: | Department of Civil Engineering, University of Science and Technology of Suzhou, Jiangsu Suzhou 215011, China |
| |
| Abstract: | According to actual road network in the west region of China,the authors developed a probit assignment method to forecast the road network traffic based on section traffic growth.Multiple regression model was used to forecast the general traffic volume based on traffic investigation and historical economy data and the probit assignment method was used to forecast the diverted traffic volume and the induced traffic volume of a new or rebuilded road. |
| |
| Keywords: | General traffic volume Diverted traffic volume Induced traffic volume Probit assignment method Road network traffic |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
