基于模糊集值理论和TOPSIS法的应急避难所选择研究

针对城市突发事件下人员疏散应急避难所的选择,从安全性、可达性、应急服务能力三个方面构建评价指标体系。考虑到评价指标的不确定性,采用指标区间评分和模糊集值统计理论确定评价指标权重值,利用TOPSIS法原理构建应急避难所选择综合评价模型,确定各评价指标的最优解与最劣解,通过计算各评价指标到最优解和最劣解的距离得到各备选应急避难所与最优解的接近程度,按照接近程度对各应急避难所进行排序。实例计算结果表明：到危险源距离、避难所容量、到医院距离、到救援物质仓库距离是避难所选择的主要因素,到最优解距离越小,接近程度越大,该应急避难所越优。

Selection of Urban Temporary Shelter Based on Fuzzy-set Theory and TOPSIS Method

For evacuation shelter choosing under emergency event in a city, an evaluation index system was established from the view points of safety, accessibility and emergency service capabilities. Considering the uncertainty of these evaluation indexes, and combined with the interval marking for each index with the theory of fuzzy set-valued statistics the evaluation index weight was determined. Then, a comprehensive evaluation model of emergency shelter choosing was constructed based on the TOPSIS method, and the optimal solution and the worst solution of each index were obtained. The distances between each alternative shelter and the optimal solution were obtained by calculated the distances from each index to the optimal solution and the worst solution. Each alternative shelter was sorted according to the distances. The greater the distance was, the better the alternative shelter would be. An example showed that： the distances to the hazardous point, to the hospital, to the rescue material warehouse and the capacity of shelter were the main factors for a temporary shelter choosing. If the distance to the optimal solution was samller and the distance was shorter, the emergency shelter would be better.