| Abstract: | Intersection accidents represent a significant proportion of overall motor vehicle accidents. More accurate estimates of the actual effectiveness of intersection safety improvements are required. This study develops an improved methodology for post-implementation evaluation of safety countermeasures at intersections. Accidents are random, rarely occurring events. For a given time period, this leads to random fluctuations in accident frequencies, which suggests that statistical analysis employing confidence intervals, rather than point estimates, is required. Two technical problems complicate this treatment of accident occurrence as a random variable. The first problem is that identifying of hazardous locations is generally based on above-average accident frequency during the most recent period(s) for which data is available. The second problem arises from changes in external factors such as traffic volume, motor vehicle safety standards, etc., during the period of analysis, which may also affect traffic safety. A “combined” approach which addresses these technical issues is developed. Empirical Bayesian methodology is combined with regression techniques to derive a more accurate measure of the effect of safety treatments. An important consideration is the derivation of the variance of this measure, so that appropriate confidence intervals may be constructed. The approach is then applied to a sample of locations that underwent treatment by the Massachusetts Department of Public Works (MDPW). We compare our results to those which might be obtained using alternative methodologies that correct for neither or only one of the technical problems. We also illustrate how preliminary conclusions may be drawn regarding the effectiveness of broad categories of treatments, and how individual sites requiring further investigation may be identified. |
