| 基于神经网络的公交车辆行程时间预测模型研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 何波,卢耀军,陈旭梅,林国鑫,朱琳.基于神经网络的公交车辆行程时间预测模型研究[J].城市公共交通,2010(4):37-40. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 何波 卢耀军 陈旭梅 林国鑫 朱琳 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中交第二公路勘察设计研究院有限公司规划研究室,武汉,430056;北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京,100044;北京中咨正达交通工程科技有限公司,北京,100011 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目，中国博士后科学基金项目，国家863计划课题 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 城市公交丰辆行程时间预测是公共交通信息服务和运营调度的重要内容，要求较高的实时性和准确性。本文以智能交通运输系统为背景，通过分析公交车辆的行驶特性，基于改进的神经网络模型，建立了公交车辆动态行程时间预测模型，并对比了三种不同输入变量方案的神经网络预测模型，表明该模型具有良好的适用性。此外，将该方法与卡尔曼滤波法的行程时间预测模型进行比较，结果表明，基于神经网络的动态行程时间预测模型精确度较高。
|
| 关 键 词： | 公共交通 行程时间预测 神经网络 卡尔曼滤波法 |
Bus Travel Time Prediction Model Based on Neural Network |
| |
| HE Bo,LU Yaojun,CHEN Xumei,LIN Guoxin,ZHU Lin.Bus Travel Time Prediction Model Based on Neural Network[J].Urban Public Transport,2010(4):37-40. |
| |
| Authors: | HE Bo LU Yaojun CHEN Xumei LIN Guoxin ZHU Lin |
| |
| Institution: | 1. The Second Highway Survey Design and Research CO., LTD Planning Research Department ; 2. School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University;3. Beijing Zhong Zi Zheng Da Traffic Engineering Technology Ltd) |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper intends to develop the dynamic travel time prediction model for bus vehicles which can be used for bus arrival time prediction. Therefore, real-time transit information service can be provided to passengers and bus operator. After factors that influence bus travel time are analyzed, the dynamic travel time prediction model is set up based on improved Artificial Neural Networks （ANN） , then three scenarios of ANN Prediction model are compared in order to get the better one. Finally, the prediction results are compared with those of Kalman Filter Prediction model. The comparative results reveal that Artificial Neural Networks Prediction model performs better. |
| |
| Keywords: | Public Transportation Travel Time Prediction Neural Network Kalman Filter |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
