A joint model for vehicle type and fuel type choice: evidence from a cross-nested logit study |
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Authors: | Stephane Hess Mark Fowler Thomas Adler Aniss Bahreinian |
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Institution: | (1) Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK;(2) Resource Systems Group, Burlington, VT, USA;(3) Resource Systems Group, White River Junction, Burlington, VT, USA;(4) California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA, USA |
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Abstract: | In the face of growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions, there is increasing interest in forecasting the likely demand
for alternative fuel vehicles. This paper presents an analysis carried out on stated preference survey data on California
consumer responses to a joint vehicle type choice and fuel type choice experiment. Our study recognises the fact that this
choice process potentially involves high correlations that an analyst may not be able to adequately represent in the modelled
utility components. We further hypothesise that a cross-nested logit structure can capture more of the correlation patterns
than the standard nested logit model structure in such a multi-dimensional choice process. Our empirical analysis and a brief
forecasting exercise produce evidence to support these assertions. The implications of these findings extend beyond the context
of the demand for alternative fuel vehicles to the analysis of multi-dimensional choice processes in general. Finally, an
extension verifies that further gains can be made by using mixed GEV structures, allowing for random heterogeneity in addition
to the flexible correlation structures. |
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