| CDUBGM-Markov模型在铁路客运量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李杨,广晓平.CDUBGM-Markov模型在铁路客运量预测中的应用[J].西部交通科技,2010(9):90-93. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李杨 广晓平 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州,780070 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章在传统的灰色模型和马尔柯夫模型的基础上,提出了动态无偏灰色马尔柯夫模型,阐述了该模型的建立方法,并采用这三种模型对我国铁路客运量进行了预测,对比结果表明动态无偏灰色马尔柯夫模型的拟合效果较好,预测精度较高,是一种行之有效的预测方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路客运量预测 动态无偏灰色马尔柯夫模型 动态预测 |
The Application of CDUBGM-Markov Model in Railway Transportation |
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| LI Yang,GUANG Xiao-ping.The Application of CDUBGM-Markov Model in Railway Transportation[J].Western China Communication Science & Technology,2010(9):90-93. |
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| Authors: | LI Yang GUANG Xiao-ping |
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| Institution: | (Lanzhou University of Communication,College of Communication Academy,Lanzhou,Gansu,730070) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the original Grey model and Markov model,the article introduces CDUBGM-Markov model.It mentions the building process of the model and compared it to other two alternatives.The results show that CDUBGM-Markov has a better simulation ability and it is a suitable tool for projecting. |
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| Keywords: | Railway transportation volume projecting CDUBGM-markov model Dynamic projecting |
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