都市圈轨道交通客流预测方法研究

传统的城市交通客流预测方法已不适用于群落城镇构成的都市圈的规划.分析了都市圈交通规划与传统城市交通规划的差异,界定了都市圈轨道交通的功能层次.以轨道交通和汽车的交通竞争关系提出了吸引范围的竞争模型,并以此标定了轨道交通站点的吸引范围.结合线网规划,通过节点分析和交通小区分析,提出了结合交通调查的趋势客流预测方法和诱增客流预测方法.方式分担模型采用了Logit模型,选择表征时间和费用的四个因素(步行时间、等车时间、在乘时间、交通费用)作为效用函数的参数.

A Method of Forecasting Passenger Flow in Metropolitan UMT

The traditional passenger flow forecasting can't adapt itself to the urban planning of a metropolitan area composed of clustering cities and towns.This paper analyzes the different transportation planning in a metropolitan area and traditional cities,defines the functional circles of urban rail transit in metropolitan area,which is the basis to decide the attractive spheres of rail transit stations compared to bus stops.Also,the paper discusses a new passenger flow forecasting on the basis of node analysis, traffic zone analysis,and a Logit model with perimeter walk time,wait time,in vehicle time and out of pocket cost as its parameter of utility function.